Where the AI Supply Chain Is at Risk by Geography (2026)

Critical-mineral chokepoints: China's upstream leverage

Before a chip reaches a fab, its supply chain runs through a layer of critical minerals — gallium, germanium, rare earths, indium, antimony — where geographic concentration is most acute. According to USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (data year 2024), China accounts for 750,000 kg (~99% of world low-purity primary; export controls since Aug 2023) of gallium (the substrate for GaAs and GaN chips) with export controls in force since August 2023, and the U.S. is 100% net-import reliant on gallium. Rare earths — used in permanent magnets for motors, speakers, and industrial equipment throughout the supply chain — see China at 270,000 t (~69% of world mine production) of world mine production, with the U.S. at 80% (compounds and metals, 2024) net-import reliance. Indium (used in compound semiconductors and display panels) puts China at 760 t (~70% of world refinery production) of world refinery production, with the U.S. 100% import-reliant. Antimony — used as a flame retardant in packaging and PCBs — stands at 60,000 t (~60%; banned all antimony exports to U.S. Dec 2024) of world mine production; China banned all antimony exports to the U.S. in December 2024 (per the USGS data note). The table below covers all nine USGS-tracked minerals in this dataset.

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (data year 2024). USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (data year 2024); https://www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center. All figures are USGS-reported for data year 2024. "US net-import reliance" is the USGS-published figure; see each source URL for methodology. Table covers all minerals in the data/minerals.json dataset; no mineral was omitted except Neon (an industrial gas with no USGS Mineral Commodity figure, noted in the omitted field). Export-control notes (gallium, germanium, antimony) are from the USGS source text.

Where the supply-chain chokepoints are headquartered

Across the 239 companies that appear as a key supplier to at least one other tracked company, United States companies hold the most total supplier in-degree (502), followed by Taiwan (315), Japan (185), China (128), and South Korea (67). The top-25 table below shows each chokepoint node's headquarters country alongside its supplier in-degree — how many of the 615 tracked companies depend on it as a key supplier. All 615 companies have a country field; no chokepoint is listed as "unknown."

Source: wafergraph supplier-edge graph (key_suppliers). Country from the companies.json country field (100% populated, 615 companies). In-degree = number of tracked companies that list the firm as a key supplier; edge coverage is partial, so counts are a lower bound. Data as of 2026-08-10.

Supplier-edge concentration by country

Summing every company's supplier in-degree by the headquarters country of that company shows where the chain's dependency weight sits geographically. The list below covers the top six countries by total in-degree across all 239 companies that appear as key suppliers in the graph.

1. 1United States34.1% of all supplier-edge weight across the tracked supply graph502 in-degree
2. 2Taiwan21.4% of all supplier-edge weight across the tracked supply graph315 in-degree
3. 3Japan12.6% of all supplier-edge weight across the tracked supply graph185 in-degree
4. 4China8.7% of all supplier-edge weight across the tracked supply graph128 in-degree
5. 5South Korea4.6% of all supplier-edge weight across the tracked supply graph67 in-degree
6. 6Germany4.1% of all supplier-edge weight across the tracked supply graph60 in-degree

"In-degree" is the total number of tracked companies that list a firm from that country as a key supplier, summed across all companies headquartered there. Edge coverage is partial; counts are a lower bound. Data as of 2026-08-10.

Taiwan: the single geography with the two largest chokepoints

Taiwan is home to the two most-depended-on companies in the tracked supply chain. TSMC — the world's largest dedicated foundry — has a supplier in-degree of 98, meaning 98 of the 615 tracked companies list it among their key suppliers. ASE Technology — the leading advanced packaging and OSAT provider — has an in-degree of 72. Delta Electronics (AI-datacenter power) adds 40 more. Within the Foundry segment, 5 of 15 tracked foundry companies are headquartered in Taiwan; within OSAT, 10 of 22. These are company-count figures from the dataset — not fabrication-capacity or revenue-share estimates, which are covered on the per-segment pages.

Source: wafergraph supplier-edge graph and companies.json. In-degree counts are a lower bound (edge coverage is partial). Foundry and OSAT company counts are from the primary-segment assignment. As of 2026-08-10.

The Netherlands: EUV and the equipment layer

The Netherlands contributes 36 total supplier in-degree across 3 tracked equipment companies. The most notable node is ASML, whose market_position in the dataset is listed as "monopoly" — "Sole supplier of EUV lithography machines required for all leading-edge chips.". Its supplier in-degree is 11, reflecting the tracked companies that list it among their key suppliers (a lower bound, as not all EUV customers are captured in the edge graph). ASM International (atomic layer deposition / ALD) and BE Semiconductor Industries (hybrid bonding equipment) add further equipment-layer concentration from the same country.

market_position values are from the wafergraph dataset; "monopoly" is the per-company editorial classification in companies.json, not a dynamically computed metric. Source: companies.json. As of 2026-08-10.

Foundry — 15 tracked companies by country

Company counts, not market-share estimates. Reflects the primary-segment assignment of 15 companies in the wafergraph dataset. A country with many tracked companies typically plays a larger role in that segment, but share estimates would require external sourcing and are covered separately on the per-segment market-share pages.

Source: wafergraph companies.json — primary segment = first entry in the segments array. Country field is 100% populated. As of 2026-08-10.

OSAT — 22 tracked companies by country

Company counts, not market-share estimates. Reflects the primary-segment assignment of 22 companies in the wafergraph dataset. A country with many tracked companies typically plays a larger role in that segment, but share estimates would require external sourcing and are covered separately on the per-segment market-share pages.

Source: wafergraph companies.json — primary segment = first entry in the segments array. Country field is 100% populated. As of 2026-08-10.

Materials — 100 tracked companies by country

Company counts, not market-share estimates. Reflects the primary-segment assignment of 100 companies in the wafergraph dataset. A country with many tracked companies typically plays a larger role in that segment, but share estimates would require external sourcing and are covered separately on the per-segment market-share pages.

Source: wafergraph companies.json — primary segment = first entry in the segments array. Country field is 100% populated. As of 2026-08-10.

Equipment (Front End) — 62 tracked companies by country

Company counts, not market-share estimates. Reflects the primary-segment assignment of 62 companies in the wafergraph dataset. A country with many tracked companies typically plays a larger role in that segment, but share estimates would require external sourcing and are covered separately on the per-segment market-share pages.

Source: wafergraph companies.json — primary segment = first entry in the segments array. Country field is 100% populated. As of 2026-08-10.

Data and methodology

This study draws on two sources in the wafergraph dataset. (1) Supplier-edge graph: the key_suppliers fields in companies.json form the directed edges; supplier in-degree counts how many companies depend on a given firm. Edge coverage is partial — not every real relationship is recorded — so all in-degree counts are lower bounds. The country field is populated for all 615 companies. (2) USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (data year 2024) in data/minerals.json: covers nine critical minerals (gallium, germanium, silicon, rare earths, tungsten, palladium, arsenic, indium, antimony). Production figures and US net-import reliance are taken verbatim from the USGS source; no figures were derived or estimated. Segment geography (Pillar 3) uses company counts by country under the primary segment assignment — not market-share or capacity estimates.

Reproducible from the committed dataset: site/scripts/feature_geography.mjs. Named market-share estimates (foundry share, HBM share, EUV share) are covered separately on the per-segment market-share pages, not here.

FAQ

1. 1What is Taiwan's role in the semiconductor supply chain?Taiwan is home to the two largest chokepoints in the tracked supply chain by supplier in-degree: TSMC (98 companies depend on it) and ASE Technology (72). In the Foundry segment, 5 of 15 tracked foundry companies are headquartered in Taiwan; in OSAT, 10 of 22. Data as of 2026-08-10.
2. 2What is China's role in the semiconductor supply chain?China is the dominant producer of several critical minerals used in chips: gallium (~99%), silicon metal (~85%), rare earths (~69%), indium (~70%), tungsten (~83%), and antimony (~60%) — all per USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. China also hosts major tracked chokepoints: JCET Group (29 in-degree, OSAT), SMIC (31, Foundry), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (29, Foundry).
3. 3China gallium chip supply chain — what is the risk?According to USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, China produces ~99% of the world's low-purity primary gallium, with export controls in force since August 2023. The US is 100% net-import reliant on gallium (USGS 2024). Gallium is the substrate for GaAs and GaN compound semiconductors used in RF, power, and photonics applications.
4. 4Semiconductor supply chain Taiwan risk — how concentrated is it?Taiwan hosts the #1 and #2 chokepoints in the wafergraph tracked supply chain by supplier in-degree (TSMC at 98, ASE at 72), plus 5 of 15 tracked foundry companies and 10 of 22 OSAT companies. These are company-count / graph-degree figures; fabrication capacity share estimates are on the per-segment market-share pages.
5. 5What is ASML's role in the semiconductor supply chain?ASML (Netherlands) is listed as market_position "monopoly" in the wafergraph dataset: "Sole supplier of EUV lithography machines required for all leading-edge chips." Its supplier in-degree in the tracked graph is 11. Named market-share figures for EUV systems are on the Equipment (Front End) market-share page.
6. 6Which geographic single points of failure exist in the chip supply chain?The tracked data surfaces three main geographic concentrations: (1) Taiwan — top-2 chokepoints by graph in-degree (TSMC, ASE); (2) China — dominant producer of gallium, germanium, rare earths, indium, tungsten, and antimony per USGS 2025; (3) Netherlands — sole EUV supplier (ASML, "monopoly" in the dataset). South Korea (Samsung, SK hynix — HBM and DRAM) and Japan (materials cluster — 36 of 100 tracked materials companies) round out the concentration picture.

Answers computed from the wafergraph dataset and USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. Data as of 2026-08-10.